Magic vs. Cavaliers: Game 1 prediction, odds, pick for Saturday 4/20

Magic vs. Cavaliers Odds

Saturday, April 20, 1 p.m., ESPN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Orlando Magic

Orlando's offense has struggled with consistency this season, ranking 22nd in Offensive Rating. The Magic's effective field goal percentage is middle of the pack at 15th, but ball security has been a major issue, evidenced by their 25th rank in turnover percentage.

However, they excel in generating second-chance points, ranking seventh in offensive rebounding. They are also elite at drawing fouls, standing second in free-throw rate. Unfortunately, their effectiveness at the free-throw line is lacking, ranking 26th in free-throw percentage, which could leave crucial points off the board in a close playoff game.

Defensively, the Magic have been stalwarts, ranking an impressive second in Defensive Rating. They lead the league in turnover percentage, creating numerous opportunities from defensive plays, and are almost equally strong in rebounding, in which they are the second-best in the league.

Orlando’s ability to disrupt opponents' plays can falter sometimes as they send opponents to the line too often, evidenced by their 24th rank in free-throw rate, which prevents them from being a truly elite defensive team.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers' offense has been slightly better than the Magic's, positioned at 18th in Offensive Rating. Their shooting efficiency, indicated by a 13th place in eFG%, and a middling 19th rank in turnover percentage, suggests they are somewhat more effective but not elite.

Their ability to secure offensive rebounds (21st) and draw fouls (22nd in free throw rate) does not particularly stand out, which might limit their scoring bursts, especially under playoff pressure.

Cleveland's defensive metrics are robust. The Cavs rank sixth in Defensive Rating and in eFG%, which indicates they are effective at limiting opponents' shooting success. They also perform well in turnover creation and rebounding, with respective ranks of 12th and eighth, helping maintain control over the game flow.

This solid defensive foundation is crucial for their playoff ambitions, especially when paired with a disciplined approach to not conceding many free-throw opportunities to opponents.

Magic vs. Cavaliers

Betting Pick & Prediction

Given the defensive prowess of both teams and their underwhelming offensive stats, betting on Under 207.5 points at BetRivers seems the most logical strategy for this matchup.

The Magic’s strong defensive tactics, combined with the Cavs' ability to control the paint and limit effective shooting, suggest a low-scoring affair is on the cards.

Additionally, with both teams ranking lower in their ability to convert scoring opportunities effectively, especially from the free-throw line, there is a strong indication that points will be hard to come by, making the under an appealing option.

In the first game of the playoffs, tensions will be high and anxiety will be rampant, which should further push the game to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Pick: Under 207.5 (-109 at BetRivers)